As crypto markets await the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision, the price of XRP stands at a pivotal juncture. Trading steadily around $2.64, XRP has recovered most of its losses following the October 10th dip, yet uncertainty looms. The broader market now hinges on whether the Fed will signal a more accommodative monetary stance—one that could decisively lift XRP past the $3 milestone—or deliver a hawkish message that might force digital assets into yet another correction.
The spotlight on XRP is brighter than ever after an explosive Q3 that saw the asset registering a jaw-dropping surge in market cap to $170 billion, briefly outshining both Bitcoin and Ethereum in quarterly gains. But with impressive growth comes heightened scrutiny. Now, multiple indicators suggest that XRP could be due for a temporary cooldown before any sustainable breakout can resume.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Market Exhaustion
According to on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, the TD Sequential indicator—a widely followed tool for spotting trend reversals—is flashing red yet again for XRP. Notably, this metric has accurately forecasted multiple significant pullbacks over the past few months, including a 24% drop following its July 22 sell signal. Adding weight to today’s concerns, Martinez emphasized that the latest signal appears strikingly similar in structure and setup to previous instances that culminated in sharp short-term declines.
However, the indicator has not exclusively predicted downturns. Bullish reversals in late September and again on October 22 were also preceded by TD buy signals, which helped fuel rallies of 12% and 14%, respectively. This dual nature of the indicator presents a nuanced picture: while a correction may be imminent, it often serves as a launchpad for more powerful upswings.
Institutional Sentiment Anchors Long-Term Bullish Outlook
What makes this moment particularly intriguing is the convergence of technical red flags and bullish macro sentiment. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) upcoming policy announcement plays a central role. With a 25 basis point cut already priced in, traders are more focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone. A dovish outlook could inject new life into risk-on assets like XRP. Conversely, any sigh of concern about inflation or economic overheating could prompt aggressive selloffs.
That said, many industry veterans are unfazed by the near-term turbulence. The broader fundamentals behind XRP—growing adoption, increased regulatory clarity, and heightened institutional interest—continue to strengthen. Assets with real-world utility and clear long-term narratives often weather the most unpredictable macro events better than over-hyped alternatives.
Veteran Analysts Weigh In
Blockchain Backer, a respected crypto market commentator, sees the current XRP pattern as reminiscent of February 2025. “We’re likely in the middle of another bull trap,” he explains, pointing to historical chart data that show XRP often reverses sharply after forming a local top. Backer argues that these traps often flush out late entrants before smart money re-accumulates at lower levels—setting the stage for the next surge.
A more tempered analysis comes from DustyBC, who acknowledges the likelihood of a short-term pullback but regards it as a “healthy consolidation.” Referencing Fibonacci retracement zones, he believes XRP may revisit the $2.40–$2.55 region before resuming its upward trajectory. The key, he emphasizes, is volume: “If XRP recovers on rising volume, that’s your green light.”
Echoing this optimism, EGRAG Crypto focuses on on-chain momentum. He notes that XRP’s price and RSI (Relative Strength Index) have been forming higher highs—an encouraging signal of sustained buying activity. “So long as price structure and oscillator indicators remain in alignment, the long-term bull case for XRP is alive and well,” EGRAG wrote in a recent breakdown.
FAQs
Yes, a dovish Fed stance could boost investor confidence and lift XRP toward $3. A hawkish tone, however, may cause short-term price pressure.
The TD Sequential sell signal suggests a short-term correction may follow. It’s often a pause before the next bullish phase in XRP’s trend.
Not necessarily. Experts see it as a healthy correction that could reset momentum before XRP resumes its broader uptrend toward higher levels.
Analysts remain bullish long-term, citing strong on-chain data and higher highs in RSI—signs that XRP’s uptrend is still intact despite short dips.
