Recent Developments & Market Context
The Pudgy Penguins ecosystem has been making some interesting moves lately. Back on December 3, 2025, the project dropped some exciting news about teaming up with the NHL for the 2026 Winter Classic. This partnership includes fan experiences and branded merchandise, and the market loved it—PENGU’s price jumped nearly 30% to hit around $0.01246 in certain markets. But there’s a flip side to the story. Analysts spotted over $108 million worth of PENGU tokens being moved from project wallets to exchanges, which has people worried about potential selling pressure from those unlocked reserves. On a positive note, PENGU is expanding into Latin America, with exchange Bitso planning to roll out PENGU perpetuals in Q1 2026 to capture remittance flows in the region. We’re also seeing new money coming in—roughly $1.3 million from fresh addresses in early November. However, project and team wallets keep moving about $3 million every few days, which creates some uncertainty. Despite the recent gains, PENGU is still trading about 71% below its July 2025 peak near $0.04.
Technical Indicator Review: Support, Resistance & Momentum Dynamics
Right now, PENGU is hovering around $0.01135, down about 2.36% in the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the RSI is sitting at roughly 50.27, which tells us the market is pretty neutral—no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. The MACD line is slightly above its signal line (about 0.00006739 versus 0.00005510), with a modest positive histogram reading. This hints at some bullish momentum building, though it’s nothing dramatic yet. The 4-hour simple moving average comes in at approximately $0.0112945, while the exponential moving average is a bit higher at $0.0113291, suggesting a mild upward trend in recent price action. When we look at daily pivot points, resistance levels are stacked at around $0.011596, $0.01184, and $0.01202. Support zones sit near $0.01117, $0.01099, and $0.01074. What this means in plain English: if PENGU can push above $0.01160, we might see a run toward $0.0120. But if it falls below $0.0110, those lower support levels could come into play pretty quickly.
Price Scenarios & Forecast
Bullish Case: Breakout Towards Resistance Zone
Here’s how things could play out on the upside. If PENGU manages to hold above the 4-hour EMA around $0.01133 and breaks through that first major resistance near $0.01160, we could see it climb toward the $0.01184–$0.01202 range. The MACD crossover is pointing in a positive direction, which would be even more convincing if we see volume pick up—especially if there’s more positive news like those institutional ETF rumors or more partnership announcements. Push past these levels, and PENGU might start challenging some of those higher zones we saw back in the July-October period, potentially even making a run at $0.020 if the broader crypto market cooperates. The big question mark here is whether those project token movements will ease up and whether buyer interest can stay strong enough to absorb any selling pressure.
Bearish Case: Failing Support Leads to Pullback
Now let’s talk about what could go wrong. If PENGU slips below the current support around $0.01117 and can’t hold that psychological $0.0110 level, things could get uncomfortable pretty fast. Breaking through the second support near $0.01099 would put $0.01074 in focus as the last line of defense. The real concern here is those ongoing large wallet outflows—if project tokens keep hitting exchanges without strong buying interest to match it, the selling pressure could overwhelm the market. In a worst-case scenario where there aren’t any major positive catalysts, bears might push the price down into the $0.0095-$0.0107 range before we see any meaningful bounce. It’s definitely a situation worth watching closely.
