Current Price Action and Context
Right now, Official Melania Meme (MELANIA/USDT) is sitting at around $0.1702, up about +8.67% over the last day. While that sounds like a decent bump, it’s really just a small blip after the token crashed from its peak of nearly $13.70—we’re talking about a drop of almost 99% here. The market cap has shrunk down to the low hundreds of millions, with roughly a billion tokens floating around out there. Trading volume has been pretty quiet lately, with only the occasional burst of activity when people get interested again.
When MELANIA first hit the Solana blockchain back in January 2025, things looked wild—the valuation shot past $2 billion, thousands of wallets jumped in, and social media went crazy for it. But then reality set in. The token got hammered by non-stop selling pressure, including some pretty sketchy dumps from insiders, plus regulators started poking around. All of that has left investor confidence pretty much in tatters.
Technical Analysis: Indicators & Support-Resistance Dynamics
Since we don’t have a ton of detailed candlestick data at these price levels, let’s look at the bigger picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been screaming “oversold” during this downtrend—probably hanging out below 30—which means we might see a bounce or at least some sideways action soon. Looking at on-chain data, the team still holds a massive chunk of tokens and keeps selling them off, which basically acts like a dark cloud hanging over any rally attempts.
For support, the $0.10 to $0.15 range seems to be where enough people have bought in to create a bit of a floor. Just above that, you’ll hit resistance around $0.20, and then a tougher wall in the $0.30–$0.35 area where previous buyers might be looking to get out. If somehow the price manages to punch through $0.30 with solid volume backing it, we could see a test of $0.50—but honestly, that would take some pretty big news or a serious shift in sentiment.
Moving Averages & Trend Lines
The 50-day moving average is way up there—probably still above $1 considering how far this thing has fallen—so that’s a clear sign the long-term trend is still pointing down. Any rallies will have to fight through that barrier. The bigger picture shows a descending trendline all the way from that $13.70 high, and it’s still holding. Short-term pops might happen, but they’ll probably fizzle out unless we see real buying pressure. So far, the volume doesn’t show big players accumulating, which isn’t exactly encouraging for a real recovery.
Projections and Risk Scenarios
Most likely, MELANIA just keeps bouncing around between roughly $0.10 and $0.25 for the next few weeks. We might see it poke up toward $0.30 here and there, especially if there’s some positive news or whales start buying again. But without some major changes—like more transparency or the team stopping their constant selling—getting above $0.50 is probably wishful thinking at this point.
Now, if things somehow turn bullish—maybe from new regulations that actually help meme coins, better governance, or an unexpected partnership—there’s an outside chance it could climb back toward $1.00. On the flip side, if the team dumps more tokens or regulators crack down harder, we could easily see this drop below $0.10, maybe even down to $0.05, especially if liquidity completely dries up.
Recent News Impacting Sentiment
A bunch of stuff has really hurt confidence lately. The big one is finding out that insiders have dumped tens of millions of dollars worth of tokens over the past few months—that kind of thing destroys trust fast. Then there’s the proposed legislation in the U.S., like the MEME Act and COIN Act, which would basically ban politicians from launching or making money off tokens like this. That hits right at the core of what MELANIA is supposed to be about. On top of that, there are accusations that some wallets bought in before the official launch, which raises questions about whether the whole thing was rigged from the start.
On a slightly brighter note, there have been a few whale purchases when prices dropped low enough, which some people see as smart money quietly accumulating. Social media still gets excited about it occasionally, but those moments haven’t really turned into sustained volume or any meaningful price recovery yet.
