Bearish Liquidations Highlight Breakdown Risk
Over the past week, Internet Computer (ICP) has come under intense bearish pressure, leading to a cascade of long liquidations that amplified its price slide. According to Coinglass, more than $1.88 million in ICP futures positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with $1.70 million originating from long-side bets. This imbalance reflects aggressive risk-off sentiment by leveraged traders.
Notably, the token has dropped from a recent high of $9.45 to just $5.27, registering a drop of nearly 45% within a matter of days. This downswing was triggered after ICP again faced rejection at a major descending trendline that has defined its bearish trajectory since March 2024.
Historically, each attempt to break above this line has resulted in significant weekly reversals, creating a technical structure infamously known as a “falling wedge”—where every lower high and lower low converges into an eventual breakout, or in some cases, a final capitulation.
Is $1 a Possibility Before the Rebound?
The rekindled falling wedge pattern now raises the possibility of deeper lows for ICP. Analysts evaluating the trend project that if the wedge continues its formation into the first half of 2026, the token may slide toward the psychologically significant $1.00 threshold. Such a move would not only carve out a new all-time low but also fulfill the lower boundary of the multi-year wedge pattern.
This bearish scenario weighs on investors hoping for a reversal. Yet, it also sets the stage for a potential breakout if macro or protocol-specific catalysts emerge. Should the $5 level hold through Q4 2025 and a fundamental catalyst—perhaps a major ecosystem partnership or regulatory clarity—intervene, ICP could rebound sharply toward the $15 resistance zone.
However, momentum indicators remain subdued and the lack of bullish volume confirms the lower odds of a spontaneous reversal in the near term. For now, the prevailing market condition suggests that any short-lived rally could face strong resistance from long-term holders seeking exit points.
On-Chain Metrics Reveal Shrinking Activity
Reinforcing the bearish short-term setup are on-chain metrics that depict a rapid drop in user engagement and transactional volume. Data shows that ICP’s daily transaction count collapsed from over 172,000 transfers involving 35.6 million tokens on November 4 to just 19,886 transactions and 3.15 million tokens by mid-November—a decline of nearly 90%.
This steep contraction suggests that selling pressure has not only impacted speculative investors but possibly long-term users of the network. It also highlights a decline in blockchain-level confidence, which often precedes prolonged accumulation periods following price troughs.
Fundamentals Point to Long-Term Health
Surprisingly, despite the drastic short-term bearish tone, the Internet Computer protocol continues to exhibit fundamental resilience. A key indicator of network adoption—the number of canister smart contracts (akin to DApps)—has surged substantially. Since January 2024, the total registered canisters have jumped from 372,968 to an impressive 979,583 as of mid-November 2025.
This 2.5x increase affirms underlying developer activity and adoption, even as token prices lag. It resonates with the classic pattern observed in prior bear cycles—where fundamental growth quietly builds new floors for future price action.
While price volatility in 2025 has tested the resolve of investors, the data shows ICP is far from a failed project. In fact, its expanding ecosystem and user base may shape the foundation for a recovery—timed not by hype, but by genuine utility.
